Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
