A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
